Two wide releases, and the big one is a projected $52M for F1: The Movie (picked by 17 players). Directed by Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) and starring Brad Pitt (Cool World), the excitement for this movie should not be a surprise to anyone. The critics like it (83%)… but the audience LOVE it (97%). This movie will certainly tilt the summer in favor of those who were wise enough to select.
We also get the sequel to the 2022 sci-fi horror hit: M3GAN 2.0 (picked by 5 players). The original opened in December to $30M on its way to a $95M haul. Certainly a sequel released in the summer with heavy marketing (who doesn’t like purple neon?) would do even better, right? The critics might have a say in that.
For this weekend we are pivoting the projections to The Numbers, as Box Office Theory’s data is only partial.
The Numbers forecast for the weekend:
| 3-Day Wknd (M) | % Change | Total (M) | Theater Count | ||
| 1 | F1: The Movie | 52.0 | – | 52.0 | 3,661 |
| 2 | How To Train Your Dragon (2025) | 25.0 | -32% | – | 4,127 |
| 3 | M3GAN 2.0 | 16.7 | – | 16.7 | 3,112 |
| 4 | 28 Years Later | 14.7 | -51% | – | 3,444 |
| 5 | Elio | 10.6 | -49% | – | 3,750 |
| 6 | Lilo & Stitch (2025) | 6.1 | -37% | – | 2,900 |
| 7 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | 4.1 | -35% | – | 2,157 |
| 8 | Materialists | 3.0 | -47% | – | 1,931 |
| 9 | Ballerina | 2.0 | -55% | – | 1,796 |
| 10 | Final Destination: Bloodlines | 825K | -56% | – | 742 |
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
| All Critics | Top Critics | Verified Audience | |
| F1: The Movie | 83% | 81% | 97% |
| M3GAN 2.0 | 57% | 46% | 85% |
CinemaScore ratings:
| Score | |
| F1: The Movie | A |
| M3GAN 2.0 | B+ |
TBD ratings updates will be posted as they are published.