Three Wide Releases this weekend, with 49 selections on the line between 28 Years Later (17) and Elio (32). It wasn’t so long ago that Pixar’s latest would have been without a doubt the top grossing movie, but seeing only a $20M projection has got to make some folks here very nervous. Even 2023’s Elemental, which was initially feared to become the Pixar’s first summer bust, got a ridiculously-good 5x multiplier after a dismal $29M start. Elio will need something crazy like 6x if it truly opens that low. Quite odd that we don’t yet have RT scores for Top Critics or Verified Audience, as the All Critics score of 85% is pretty good as is the ‘A’ CinemaScore.
The $30M projection for 28 Years Later would be triple the opening of both 2002’s 28 Days and 2007’s 28 Weeks, but it’ll likely need to do just a bit more if it wants to compete for Top 10. 90% and 94% RT scores from the critics will do nicely, but the Audience doesn’t seem to be that impressed at just 69% and a ‘B’ CinemaScore.
Box Office Theory forecast for this weekend:
| 3-Day Wknd (M) | % Change | Total (M) | Theater Count | ||
| 1 | How To Train Your Dragon (2025) | 38.8 | -54% | 150.1 | 4,373 |
| 2 | 28 Years Later | 30.0 | – | 30.0 | 3,444 |
| 3 | Elio | 20.4 | – | 20.4 | 3,750 |
| 4 | Lilo & Stitch (2025) | 12.5 | -20% | 387.3 | 3,375 |
| 5 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | 6.4 | -39% | 176.5 | 2,603 |
| 6 | Materialists | 5.3 | -56% | 21.1 | 2,844 |
| 7 | Ballerina | 3.9 | -60% | 49.0 | 2,537 |
| 8 | Karate Kid: Legends | 3.3 | -37% | 49.8 | 2,006 |
| 9 | Final Destination: Bloodlines | 1.7 | -58% | 133.7 | 1,342 |
| 10 | The Phoenician Scheme | 1.7 | -47% | 15.8 | 1,101 |
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
| All Critics | Top Critics | Verified Audience | |
| 28 Years Later | 90% | 94% | 69% |
| Elio | 85% | TBD | TBD |
| Bride Hard | 20% | TBD | TBD |
CinemaScore ratings:
| Score | |
| 28 Years Later | B |
| Elio | A |
| Bride Hard | B- |
TBD ratings updates will be posted as they are published.