It’s the final weekend of the SMP (so sad), and this one will hopefully be a relaxing and enjoyable holiday weekend for all. Our Forecast has four new releases that will get a full three days of box office (Labor Day Monday does not count), and this list goes to eleven. The ratings are quite good for a couple of them, with The Toxic Avenger being the most surprising. Peter Dinklage FTW! Extra fun is the 50th Anniversary big screen return of what is widely considered the first summer blockbuster: Jaws. Exciting!
Box Office Theory’s forecast for the holiday weekend:
| 3-Day Wknd (M) | % Change | 4-Day Wknd (M) | Total (M) | Theater Count | ||
| 1 | Weapons | 11.6 | -25% | 14.3 | 136.6 | 3,416 |
| 2 | Freakier Friday | 8.4 | -6% | 11.4 | 85.4 | 3,475 |
| 3 | The Roses | 7.1 | – | 8.5 | 8.5 | 2,700 |
| 4 | Jaws (50th Anniversary Re-Issue) | 6.0 | – | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3,200 |
| 5 | The Fantastic Four: First Steps | 4.9 | -18% | 6.2 | 265.8 | 2,785 |
| 6 | Caught Stealing | 5.0 | – | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3,578 |
| 7 | The Bad Guys 2 | 4.3 | -16% | 5.8 | 74.1 | 3,015 |
| 8 | Superman (2025) | 2.8 | -18% | 3.6 | 352.0 | 1,824 |
| 9 | Nobody 2 | 2.5 | -32% | 3.2 | 21.5 | 2,491 |
| 10 | The Naked Gun (2025) | 2.4 | -20% | 3.0 | 52.0 | 1,744 |
| 11 | The Toxic Avenger Unrated | 1.0 | – | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1,995 |
Rotten Tomatoes freshness ratings:
| All Critics | Top Critics | Verified Audience | |
| The Roses | 64% | 51% | 75% |
| Caught Stealing | 85% | 79% | 86% |
| The Toxic Avenger Unrated | 83% | 94% | 87% |
CinemaScore ratings:
| Score | |
| The Roses | TBD |
| Caught Stealing | TBD |
| The Toxic Avenger Unrated | TBD |
TBD ratings updates will be posted as they are published.