Only two weekends remain in the SMP, and as expected we just witnessed the first Pixar film ever to miss the Top 10. After starting their legacy with four straight November releases (Toy Story in 1995, A Bug’s Life in 1998, Toy Story 2 in 1999 and Monsters, Inc. in 2001), Pixar took a shot at summer $$$ with Finding Nemo in 2003. Since that $941M global explosion, 16 of Pixar’s next 20 movies became SMP hits… up until 2025. The worst-performing summer Pixar to date was 2022’s Lightyear with $118M, but that one still finished #8 in the SMP. Elio’s $72M just set a record in futility for Pixar, snapping a 21-year streak of SMP success. Coming off 2024’s Inside Out 2 that earned $653M domestically and nearly $1.7 BILLION globally, the house of Luxo Jr. has just gone “from nonsuck to suck”.
On a lighter note (or scarier considering the subject matter), Weapons is now our #10 movie with $88M through its first two weekends. How impressive is its performance to date? Well we can start with a second weekend hold of -43.8%, by far the best of the SMP among ‘major’ releases (ironically it was Elio’s -50.0% that held until now). Weapons‘ 2.03x multiplier through two weekends is also the second-best of the SMP (Jurassic World: Rebirth’s 2.53x is still tops, but that number is skewed knowing its first $55M came from a Wednesday opening). Still, Weapons dominated the box office once again, nearly doubling up the next best performer for the second straight weekend.
The Top 10 update didn’t negatively impact our pool’s leader, as Thomas’ Deviation Score is amazingly still in the single digits despite losing his 10th movie. But the drop out by Elio has shaken up the rest of the list, vaulting Kent into 2nd Place as the only other player with 9 correct picks. While 1st and 2nd Place should hold, the race for 3rd Place depends on whether or not there’s any more movement. I don’t see Weapons earning another $50M in the next 14 days, but it appears possible that F4 can earn another $15M in that time.
Current Standings
| Player | # Correct Picks | Deviation Score | |
| #1 | Thomas F | 9 | 9 |
| #2 | Kent W | 9 | 17 |
| #3 | JP B | 8 | 12 |
| #4 | Kelly P | 8 | 14 |
| #5 | Mike M | 8 | 14 |
| #6 | Joshua B | 8 | 15 |
Top 10 IN
- #10 Weapons
Top 10 OUT
- Elio
Holdover News
- #1 Lilo & Stitch at $421.7M after a $63K weekend is still #40 on the All Time list.
- #2 Superman at $340.8M has moved up from #87 to #79 on the All Time list. Next up is 2016’s Zootopia at $341.2M.
- #3 Jurassic World: Rebirth at $332.1M has moved up from #92 to #88 on the All Time list. Next up is 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy at $333.7M
- #4 How To Train Your Dragon is quickly fading after a $186K weekend for a current total of $262.0M.
- #5 The Fantastic Four: First Steps finally had a sub-50% weekend drop, as its -43.8% hold was good for $9M and a current total of $247.2M. It should be able to climb one more spot before the end.
- #6 M:I – Final Reckoning just called it with a final total of $197.4M, finishing 4th of the 8 films in the franchise.
- #7 Thunderbolts* is seemingly locked in at $190.3M, but that’s not guarantee as…
- #8 F1 saw an incredible eighth weekend hold of just -7.4% for $2.7M and a current total of $182.8M.
- #9 Final Dest: Bloodlines is locked in at $138M.
Next Weekend: While there are three new Wide releases coming out, none are expected to hit double digits. In fact, the only newcomer projected to do so is the theatrical release of Netflix’s current mega hit: KPop Demon Hunters, which this one is A Sing-Along Event.