The 2024 Summer Movie Pool has ended, and after 20 different champions (including tied winners) in the past 24 years we now go back to our OG Champ!
The recent Hollywood strikes heavily impacted summer 2024 as numerous release dates were shuffled to accommodate the readiness of the impacted films. Instead of multiple Marvel movies as originally scheduled, including the opening weekend, we only got one in late July. We had multiple weekends of no major releases. Summer box office concerns leading up to the SMP were valid… but concerns that moviegoing was “dead” proved to be completely unfounded. In the end, moviegoing got back on track thanks to a couple really huge hits.
After a 2022 summer with the smash hit Top Gun: Maverick ($701M), and a 2023 summer with the smash hit Barbie ($598M), there was no way we could have any hits in 2024 with the entire industry “dying”, right? Well, how does $1.24 BILLION combined for #1 and #2 sound?
You want data? We’ve got data!
Going back to our start in 1998 we’ve had 5 years where the #1 + #2 movies exceeded $1B. And of them all, 2024 is largest total we’ve seen.
| #1 Movie | ($M) | #2 Movie | ($M) | TOTAL | |
| 2024 | Inside Out 2 | 648.8 | Deadpool & Wolverine | 593.7 | 1.24B |
| 2023 | Barbie | 598.9 | Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse | 381.2 | 980.1M |
| 2022 | Top Gun: Maverick | 692.9 | Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness | 411.3 | 1.10B |
| 2021 | Black Widow | 181.5 | F9: The Fast Saga | 172.7 | 354.2M |
| 2019 | The Lion King | 518.3 | Toy Story 4 | 428.7 | 947.0M |
| 2018 | The Incredibles 2 | 598.6 | Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom | 413.6 | 1.01B |
| 2017 | Wonder Woman | 407.0 | Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 | 389.4 | 796.4M |
| 2016 | Finding Dory | 479.8 | Captain America: Civil War | 407.9 | 887.7M |
| 2015 | Jurassic World | 643.3 | Avengers: Age of Ultron | 457.7 | 1.10B |
| 2014 | Guardians of the Galaxy | 274.6 | Transformers: Age of Extinction | 244.3 | 518.9M |
| 2013 | Iron Man 3 | 408.4 | Despicable Me 2 | 353.6 | 762.0M |
| 2012 | The Avengers | 618.2 | The Dark Knight Rises | 426.7 | 1.04B |
| 2011 | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 | 371.8 | Transformers: Dark of the Moon | 349.7 | 721.5M |
| 2010 | Toy Story 3 | 405.9 | Iron Man 2 | 312.1 | 718.0M |
| 2009 | Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen | 399.5 | Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince | 294.5 | 694.0M |
| 2008 | The Dark Knight | 502.3 | Iron Man | 317.8 | 820.1M |
| 2007 | Spider-Man 3 | 336.5 | Shrek the Third | 321.0 | 657.5M |
| 2006 | Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest | 409.1 | Cars | 240.9 | 650.0M |
| 2005 | Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith | 379.5 | War of the Worlds | 232.0 | 611.5M |
| 2004 | Shrek 2 | 436.7 | Spider-Man 2 | 367.8 | 804.5M |
| 2003 | Finding Nemo | 332.4 | The Matrix Reloaded | 277.8 | 610.2M |
| 2002 | Spider-Man | 403.6 | Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones | 300.7 | 704.3M |
| 2001 | Shrek | 262.5 | The Mummy Returns | 201.0 | 463.5M |
| 2000 | Mission: Impossible II | 213.0 | Gladiator | 182.7 | 395.7M |
| 1999 | Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace | 419.4 | Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me | 204.2 | 623.6M |
| 1998 | Saving Private Ryan | 216.5 | Armageddon | 201.6 | 418.1M |
2024 was an interesting summer when compared against prior years. Only 9 movies grossed $100M+ (down from 2023’s 13), which can certainly be attributed to release delays caused by the strikes. But at the same time this year had 69 movies grossing $1M+ (up from 2023’s 46), the most since 2013 (70). The Top 10 Total Gross of $2.68B is slightly down from both 2023 ($2.77B) and 2022 ($2.73B), but it’s still the 4th most all-time. However, the All Total Gross of $3.46B is one of the lowest since 2006 ($3.38B).
The All Average really tells the story of 2024 with the lowest average movie gross since wayyyy back in 1999. The final tally of 69 movies earning $1M+ was certainly skewed, as it was heavily stacked at the top while 39(!) grossed less than $10M. People were going to theaters this summer, but clearly to go see the blockbusters.
| $100M Count | $1M Count | Top 10 Total ($) | All Total ($) | All Avg ($) | |
| 2024 | 9 | 69 | 2.68B | 3.46B | 50.2M |
| 2023 | 13 | 46 | 2.77B | 3.76B | 81.7M |
| 2022 | 8 | 42 | 2.73B | 3.14B | 74.8M |
| 2021 | 4 | 42 | 1.02B | 1.52B | 36.2M |
| 2019 | 10 | 67 | 2.55B | 3.76B | 56.1M |
| 2018 | 10 | 62 | 2.48B | 3.76B | 60.6M |
| 2017 | 11 | 60 | 2.25B | 3.50B | 58.3M |
| 2016 | 13 | 65 | 2.37B | 4.09B | 62.9M |
| 2015 | 12 | 58 | 2.74B | 4.10B | 70.7M |
| 2014 | 14 | 63 | 2.13B | 3.75B | 59.5M |
| 2013 | 16 | 70 | 2.42B | 4.48B | 64.0M |
| 2012 | 11 | 59 | 2.58B | 3.94B | 66.8M |
| 2011 | 16 | 56 | 2.40B | 3.95B | 70.6M |
| 2010 | 12 | 53 | 2.34B | 3.85B | 72.7M |
| 2009 | 13 | 58 | 2.35B | 3.94B | 68.0M |
| 2008 | 12 | 57 | 2.36B | 3.90B | 68.5M |
| 2007 | 15 | 69 | 2.40B | 3.87B | 56.0M |
| 2006 | 11 | 61 | 1.97B | 3.38B | 55.4M |
| 2005 | 9 | 58 | 1.97B | 3.22B | 55.6M |
| 2004 | 11 | 62 | 2.02B | 3.46B | 55.8M |
| 2003 | 15 | 61 | 1.99B | 3.50B | 57.3M |
| 2002 | 12 | 60 | 1.97B | 3.39B | 56.5M |
| 2001 | 10 | 54 | 1.67B | 2.98B | 55.1M |
| 2000 | 11 | 51 | 1.47B | 2.63B | 51.5M |
| 1999 | 11 | 58 | 1.72B | 2.77B | 47.8M |
| 1998 | 9 | 59 | 1.49B | 2.64B | 44.8M |
On to our winners!
After a year where 25 players tied for the lead with 8 correct picks, in 2024 we had 6 players tie with 9 picks. And the player with the best Deviation Score is…. ME (STEVE BERG)! I (like most others) butchered my pick of Furiosa with a 6-point hit, but my other placements were all money with 2 perfectly placed and 5 1’s for a total Score of 16. This is my first SMP win since 2019, and 8th overall (though 4 did come in the first 5 years of play). Me Steve wins $250.00 for 1st Place. Groovy.
Our runner-up did an even better job in perfect placements, as longtime player GEORGE MANDELLA nailed 3 picks along with 3 1’s. George’s best 9 selections were about as good as mine, but it was that rough pick of Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 that did him in with a 7-point hit for a total Score of 19. This is George’s best showing ever as he made the money list for the first time, winning $50 for 2nd Place. Congrats!!
Our 3rd Place winner is also a longtime player and former champ (2015), and his presence on the podium is directly due to being the only one here smart enough to pick the surprise hit It Ends With Us. MARIO NELSON connected on 1 perfect pick along with 4 1’s. But the lack of faith in Twisters combined with the overconfidence in The Fall Guy resulted in a Score of 20. Mario will likely forever feel hated for The Garfield Movie, as what was once a sure lock for the Top 10 (and a solo win) crashed hard to miss the cutoff by just One. Million. Dollars. Oof. Still, Mario beat out the other 3 finalists to win $20.00 for 3rd Place. Nice job!
| Name | Correct Picks | Deviation Score | Deviations |
| Steve Berg | 9 | 16 | 1,1,0,1,1,1,2,3,0,6 |
| George Mandella | 9 | 19 | 0,1,1,2,0,2,0,5,1,7 |
| Mario Nelson | 9 | 20 | 1,1,0,5,1,1,2,2,4,3 |
| Ed Acayan | 9 | 28 | 5,0,2,0,5,3,1,2,5,5 |
| David Logan | 9 | 30 | 2,0,1,5,3,1,1,4,9,4 |
| Dennis Berg | 9 | 32 | 0,1,1,6,3,1,2,5,4,9 |
And of course we have our Bonehead Winner, which did see some competition as 3 selected movies each finished below $1M (reminder – a movie must make at least $1 to qualify, which 2 selections did not). The real surprise is WHO was our winner this year, as the prize goes to KELLY PERONE for her amazing selection of The Last Stop in Yuma County ($94K). Kelly is two-time SMP champ including the greatest performance in the 25 year history of the pool, so this was wildly surprising. But guess what? Kelly wins her $10.00 back and now joins her husband Curt (2001 winner) in the Hall of Boneheads. Well done!
To recap the prizes, with a $330 total pot we have the following payouts:
1st Place – $250.00 – Steve Berg
2nd Place – $50.00 – George Mandella
3rd Place – $20.00 – Mario Nelson
Bonehead Award – $10.00 – Kelly Perone
Some final observations from this summer:
1) Inside Out 2’s final tally of $648.8M placed it at #11 on the ALL TIME domestic list.
2) Deadpool & Wolverine’s final tally of $593.7M placed at #17 on the ALL TIME domestic list.
3) The biggest box office disappointment of the summer is easily Furiosa, as 40 of 43 players watched it top out at $67M for finish #14. Kudos to the 3 that didn’t select it, including both our 2nd and 3rd Place winners.
4) The biggest surprise has to be It Ends with Us, as only 1 player selected the #8 movie of the summer. I questioned its description in the trailers as a “global phenomenon”, and clearly I was wrong.
5) 5 movies scored a RT Critics score of 90%+ at time of release:
- Thelma (99%)
- Oddity (98%)
- Kneecap (96%)
- Inside Out 2 (92%)
- Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (90%).
5) On the flip side, 16 movies scored a RT Critics score below 50% at time of release. These are the worst of the worst:
- Tarot (5%)
- Summer Camp (10%)
- Borderlands (10%)
- The Strangers: Chapter 1 (17%)
- Reagan (18%)
6) 15 movies earned at least an ‘A-‘ CinemaScore, but only 2 received the coveted A+ score:
- Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot (A+)
- The Forge (A+)
7) The best second-weekend multiplier among our 13 trackable movies was Despicable Me 3 at 2.80x. The best fourth-weekend multiplier was again Despicable Me 3 at 3.89x. And the best eighth-weekend multiplier was once again Despicable Me 3 at an incredible 4.64x. That’s some serious legs for an animated movie that played second fiddle to Inside Out 2.
8) 17 movies and 36 player entries will be added to the Hall of Boneheads (reserved for anything below $50M). Congrats to those about to become immortalized!
Lastly, and personally, my favorite movies of Summer 2023 are in terms of ‘most enjoyable’ experiences. Not necessarily the ‘best’ films. Fun = enjoyable, which is what I want when I pay to go to the theater. And yes, seeing movies in AMC’s Dolby auditorium with Dolby Vision/Atmos makes a HUGE difference in the experience. Thanks to the AMC A-List program I saw 12 movies at the theater this summer, with my favorites being:
- Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (relentlessly fun and finally a colorful villain in the franchise)
- Deadpool & Wolverine (exceeded my own expectations and lots of true LOL moments)
- The Fall Guy (a bit chaotic and overlong at 2+ hours, but great chemistry an action scenes)
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (my favorite of the newest franchise)
- Alien: Romulus (I have to agree with select critics that the first 20-30 minutes are some of the best of the summer)
Barring any further release bumps, Summer 2025 is already packed with expected hits like: Thunderbolts*, Mission: Impossible 8 (looks like they dropped the Dead Reckoning in the name), a new Karate Kid, Pixar’s Elio, a live action How To Train Your Dragon, 28 Years Later, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, James Gunn’s Superman, and Marvel’s very own MCU version of The Fantastic Four. Sweet!
Here’s hoping everyone had a fun time playing in the SMP this year! It was so great getting back the automation of the site with the rebuilt Standings and Scoreboard (props again to our developer, Mr. X!), and I really enjoyed providing the weekend previews and weekend recaps. Hope you enjoyed them all. See you all next summer!!