Who’s ready for a little analysis of our 2019 Summer Movie Pool picks??
27 different movies were selected (3 more than last year), and amazingly none of them were Limited-release. We did just have a movie (Artemis Fowl) shift out of this year and into summer 2020… and completely handcuff one of our players. Awwwww I’ve been there. It sucks. And zero chance at the Bonehead Award too since it must earn at least $1 this summer.
Before the summer started I counted 12 legit contenders for Top 10 status, but as we learned a few years back (Straight Outta Compton anyone?) anything can happen. And remember, nobody really knows anything 😀
Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie (10+ selections this year):
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu – May 10
47 people / Avg placement = 6.1 / Highest placement = 2
A heavy favorite for making the list, as the product is a worldwide phenomenon. It does feel like a 2019 movie is a bit late in the game, but hearing Ryan Reynold’s voice as Pikachu was all I needed to be sold on it.
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum – May 17
21 people / Avg placement = 8.0 / Highest placement = 3
I’ll admit, the trailer for this third film looks better than all of the second film. I’m in. But not enough to actually select it. $43M and $92M for the predecessors don’t exactly inspire confidence in the third’s success, even if this one is its first summer release. And then there is that whole ‘rule of 50%’ thing for sequels.
Aladdin – May 24
54 people / Avg placement = 6.1 / Highest placement = 2
I’m really surprised this wasn’t a unanimous selection, as it appeared to be a super-lock. Surely this will fare better than Disney’s last live-action flick, Christopher Robin, right?
Godzilla: King of the Monsters – May 31
47 people / Avg placement = 6.8 / Highest placement = 2
I don’t care what people think, Godzilla was one of the best movies of 2014, and I have a feeling I’ll enjoy this one even more. Another heavy favorite, with multiple players even having it as high as #2. Bold. Very bold.
Rocketman – May 31
14 people / Avg placement = 8.2 / Highest placement = 6
This movie will inevitably be compared to Bohemian Rhapsody, which played more as a “greatest hits” documentary. Rocketman is being described more as a fantasy musical, not a biopic. Sounds groovy, and 14 players are on board.
Dark Phoenix – June 7
43 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 2
And another heavy favorite, but moreso toward the bottom of the list. Now that Disney has gobbled up Fox is there still interest in a fading franchise that is already being considered for a Marvel reboot? I personally didn’t pick it, but I’ll still go see it.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 – June 7
52 people / Avg placement = 5.2 / Highest placement = 1
The 2016 original came absolutely out of nowhere to earn $368M. As the first major animated film of the summer you can bet it will finish in the top half of the list. Lockety-lock-lock.
Men In Black: International – June 14
42 people / Avg placement = 7.4 / Highest placement = 3
This movie seemed like an easy selection, but I don’t know if I ever laughed once when watching the trailers. A new cast in a new locale sounds so… dull. Over half the pool believes, however.
Toy Story 4 – June 21
59 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
The first unanimous selection as a total no-brainer. Congrats everyone. I never expected TS3 to earn more than $400M back in 2010, so who knows how high this one will go. And this one has Key and Peele!
Spider-Man: Far From Home – July 5
59 people / Avg placement = 3.0 / Highest placement = 1
The other unanimous selection. Everyone loves Marvel. Everyone wants to see the first story after Endgame. Everyone loves Spider-Man. Spider-Man loves July 4th weekend ($334M in 2017). Too easy.
The Lion King – July 14
58 people / Avg placement = 2.2 / Highest placement = 1
NOT a unanimous selection. Wow someone really missed out. It’s almost unfair that Disney has FOUR tentpole films in one summer. Could it be one too many? Boy, I hope not.
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood – July 26
17 people / Avg placement = 8.4 / Highest placement = 6
The ballsy pick of the summer. And my dad and I both selected it. Berg rules!!! Ok, I know Tarantino movies don’t exactly make bank, but both recent flicks Inglorious Basterds and Django Unchained did cross $120M. This one reunites Leonardo DiCaprio and Margot Robbie. Ummm what else I got?? It has the late Luke Perry, yeah, so go see it for him. And did I mention Margot Robbie?
Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw – August 2
51 people / Avg placement = 6.6 / Highest placement = 2
Don’t be scared of that August date, as it has 5 weekends to make $$$. The majority are definitely not scared, as this dumb action spinoff’s got The Rock and his best bro from the F&F series, Mr. Meg. Sorry Vin, Rock says you’re not invited in on the fun.
Whew that was a lot. Ok I may not have picked all of them, but these are the movies I REALLY want to see the most in theaters: John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, Brightburn, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, Rocketman, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw.
I hope everyone enjoys this summer as much as I will. Now it’s my dad who has nearly perfectly identical picks as me. Ugh. I’m doomed 🙁
– SB
Mike Chapman