Who’s ready for a little analysis of our 2022 Summer Movie Pool picks??
Only 20 different movies were selected this year thanks to the obvious, and a couple chosen are currently listed as Limited-release. Thankfully no movies have shifted entirely out of the summer timeframe, though we did have one already slide back a week to early August. No worries there. And it looks like we’ve got a little competition for the Bonehead Award.
Before the summer started I counted 13 legit contenders for Top 10 status, but as we learned a few years back (Straight Outta Compton anyone?) anything can happen. And remember, nobody really knows anything.
Here are the numbers that we should keep an eye on for each ‘major’ movie (10+ selections this year). Not as many to list as the majority of picks gravitated around this same collection of movies. Placement will be critical in a summer like this.
Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness – May 6
41 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
Unanimous selection and tied for the highest average-placement. 17 people have it at #1. Enough has already been said of what very well could be the summer’s #1 movie based on early earnings. I saw it and liked it, but to truly enjoy (and understand) it you’ve hopefully kept up on prior MCU movies/shows. If not, there’s always Wiki.
Top Gun: Maverick – May 27
41 people / Avg placement = 4.7 / Highest placement = 1
Unanimous selection. 3 people have it at #1. This movie has shifted dates numerous times dating back to its originally-expected July 2019 date, and what I once considered to be a fun throwaway summer action flick has now become a must-see blockbuster thanks to its amazing flight sequences as displayed in trailers and promos. This screams Dolby Cinema to me.
Jurassic World Dominion – June 10
41 people / Avg placement = 2.3 / Highest placement = 1
Unanimous selection and tied for the highest average-placement. 12 people have it #1. Another film whose release was delayed (originally set for June 2021). Is it me or does this latest Jurassic movie seem forgotten in a summer with not one but TWO huge MCU films? Jurassic World (2015) earned $653M, and the sequel Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018) earned $417M. So where exactly does this one slide in? That’ll depend on whether it gets better reviews than the dismal 2018 release. Bringing back the cast of the original trilogy should really help.
Lightyear – June 17
40 people / Avg placement = 4.0 / Highest placement = 1
Nearly unanimous as only 1 person didn’t pick it. Whoops. 4 people believe enough in the Pixar magic to have it at #1. Ever since the thrilling teaser trailer launched I’ve been itching to see this Toy Story spinoff fron the co-director of Finding Dory, and I’m really hoping it will be just as action-packed and fun as the original The Incredibles. Side note – this is Pixar’s first theatrical release since Onward in February 2020, and after the backlash Disney received for yanking Turning Red from its March 2022 release they are certainly eager to move past their prior mistake.
Elvis – June 24
33 people / Avg placement = 8.3 / Highest placement = 5
One of our wildcard movies this summer, but I do think enough people today that still care about Elvis Presley to make this a hit. Yet another film whose release was delayed (originally set for October 2021), this looks to be a straight biography and not an imaginative storytelling. I’m intrigued, and how can one not be after we last saw Baz Luhrmann turn The Great Gatsby into a box office smash wayyyy back in 2013. My wife (the huge Elvis fan that she is), however, thinks otherwise as she’s not a fan of the casting (“they could have gotten any of the million impersonators who look more like Elvis.”
Minions: The Rise of Gru – July 1
39 people / Avg placement = 5.3 / Highest placement = 2
Nearly unanimous as 2 people didn’t pick it. And yet ANOTHER film whose release was delayed multiple times (originally set for July 2020). This entire franchise just doesn’t do it for me, but I’ll still pick it as the first Minions made $336M in 2015. Do kids still care 7 years later?
Thor: Love and Thunder – July 8
41 people / Avg placement = 3.3 / Highest placement = 1
Unanimous selection. Any surprise that this is another film whose release was delayed? (originally set for October 2021) If there’s any movie other than Strange 2 or Jurassic World 3 than could hit #1, it’s gotta be this one. As the direct sequel to the beloved Thor: Ragnorak, fans ate up the teaser trailer with 209 million views in the first 24 hours (4th most ever). But it was only a teaser. We need more!!
Nope – July 22
30 people / Avg placement = 7.9 / Highest placement = 5
Another wildcard of the summer, but at this point folks really need to take note of what Jordan Peele is doing. The guy’s got a quite active imagination, bring us fresh and original content in the form of horror and suspense, and especially loves secrecy. Once again all we have to go with is a thrilling teaser trailer that premiered during the Super Bowl and has generated immense hype. With his first two movies Get Out ($176M) and Us ($175M) becoming surprise box office hits, there’s no reason to not be confident in his latest release.
DC League of Super Pets – July 29
32 people / Avg placement = 7.9 / Highest placement = 4
I didn’t even realize until now that this film was originally set for May 2021 with day-and-date streaming on HBO Max, but not suprised that it also got delayed. A total of 6 animated films were selected, and this one happens to be the only DC movie to be released this summer. It eventually took over the summer slot that belonged to Black Adam, which along with numerous other movies on the DC superhero slate have been bumped due to production delays. As for this movie… Dwayne Johnson + Kevin Hart = $$$.
Bullet Train – August 5
36 people / Avg placement = 8.6 / Highest placement = 6
No surprise that this movie has shifted dates three times this year. At time of the picks deadline it was originally set for release on July 29, and Sony (wisely) moved it further away from late-July’s Nope to become the only legit-chance movie of August. Thankfully it stayed in the summer. Whew. The trailer is a lot of fun, though controversy is starting to grow over the casting choices and not-so-faithful adaptation of the original 2010 Japanese novel.
Of course, my picks aren’t entirely original as there are 17(!) of us with identical Top 10 selections. Yikes!
I may not have selected all of these, but here is my list of movies I REALLY want to see the most in theaters: Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness (check), Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Lightyear, Thor: Love and Thunder, The Gray Man (will get Limited release one week before hitting Netflix), Nope, and Bullet Train. Action galore!
I hope everyone enjoys this summer’s pool as much as I will 🙂
– SB
Mike Chapman